Did you know?

What the public sector says

• Fed outlook: The Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows policy rates drifting lower into 2026, but remember: the Fed targets the overnight federal funds rate; it doesn’t set long-term mortgage rates.
• Treasury yields: The Congressional Budget Office projects the 10-year Treasury yield to ease from about 4.3% in Q4-2025 to 3.9% by Q4-2028—directionally supportive of lower mortgage rates over time.

What lenders & market pros are forecasting

• MBA baseline: MBA expects the 10-year to remain above 4% and 30-year mortgage rates to hover roughly 6%–6.5% over the next couple of months, with occasional dips that can spur refis.
• Fannie Mae ESR: The ESR group sees mortgage rates ending 2026 near 5.9% (6.4% end-2025), implying gradual relief into 2026 as inflation cools.
• Right now: As a reference point, the national 30-year fixed averaged about the low-6s in early November 2025.

Key drivers to watch (not just the Fed)

• 10-year Treasury yield as the anchor for 30-year mortgage pricing.
• MBS spreads (prepayment/convexity/liquidity risk) that widen or narrow borrower rates at a given 10-year level.
• Inflation & growth expectations that move longer-term yields.

Verify with government records

Regardless of the rate path, investors and regulators will ask, “What did you verify?” Make government-source checks standard on every file: SSA identity verification to verify borrower identity, and IRS income verification via transcripts from the Internal Revenue Service to confirm borrower stated income.

The easy path with IRSTaxRecords.com

When rates start easing and volume returns, the last thing you need is friction. IRSTaxRecords.com gives lenders a fast, compliant channel to >SSA identity checks and IRS transcripts, helping you mitigate fraud and keep loans investor ready as the mortgage market improves.